The press packet for the proposed ban on teenage indoor tanning ban contains one of my all time favorite examples of statistical fear mongering (see page 4):
Using a tanning bed before age 35 increases your risk of developing skin cancer by 75%.
Wow, that is a very scary sounding statistic. However, even if it is true that your odds of developing skin cancer increase by 75% if you use a tanning bed before age 35, the odds that you will be diagnosed with skin cancer are still low.
For example, let’s say that the odds of winning the lottery are 1 in one million. Not very goods odds. Let us suppose that the lottery was changed such that your odds of winning have improved by 75%. Now your odds of winning are about 1 in 571,429. Still not very good odds.
The odds of getting skin cancer are much more likely than the odds of my hypothetical lottery. According the data in the press packet, 18 in 100,000 people across the nation are diagnosed with melanoma each year. Therefore, the odds of any randomly selected individual of being diagnosed with skin cancer this year are 1 in 5,556. It seems very silly to me to ban all teenagers from using tanning beds based on statistical evidence like this. More lives could probably be saved by requiring everyone to wear sunscreen, not that I would be any more supportive of a sunscreen mandate.
Anytime I hear misleading statistics, I am reminded of this joke: A new medicine was being tested on chickens. A sample of sick chickens was given the new medicine. 33% of the chickens in the sample experienced a full recovery, 33% of chickens had no change in their health, but unfortunately the third chicken ran away.
"When I was presented with the evidence [by Beilenson], how could I do anything but support our health officer?" Ulman said. He and Beilenson compared the proposed ban to similar regulations that bar alcohol and tobacco use by minors.
I don’t think it makes any amount of sense to compare a ban on teenagers using tanning beds to a ban on teenage tobacco use or teenage drinking.
Tobacco is addictive and a very strong risk factor for cancer, so while I still am of the opinion that parents should raise their children and not the government, a ban on minors using tobacco is at least generally congruent with responsible parenting. Tanning is not addictive and there is no reason that teens cannot use tanning beds in a responsible manner with parental guidance. There are even health benefits associated with tanning, which is conceded in the proposed legislation since those under 18 can use tanning beds with a doctor's note. Therefore, I don’t think that a ban on the teenage use of tanning beds is very similar to a ban on the teenage use of tobacco.
Our society does not just forbid minors from using alcohol, our laws forbid minors and young adults from using alcohol by setting the drinking age at 21. I think it would make much more sense to lower the drinking age to 18, while allowing those under 18 to drink under the supervision of parents. In August of last year, several university presidents lobbied to lower the drinking age to 18 so that students could legally drink on campus without having to drive anywhere. It seems completely absurd to me that an 18 year old can drive a car, serve on a jury and go to war, but that same 18 year old cannot purchase a beer. A drinking age of 21 is just another example of a well intentioned but poorly executed government regulation.
If there is a case to be made for a complete ban on teens using tanning beds even with parental permission, Beilenson and Ulman have yet to make it. Now they are now essentially saying that tobacco and alcohol are already regulated, so we might as well throw tanning beds in the mix, too. Very lame.
OK, Glenn Beck got me (and many others, no doubt). I saw the below video come across my Google Reader, and I assumed it was real. So natch, I posted something critical of Glenn Beck. In fact, Beck was showing how people take things out of context and jump to conclusions by pretending to boil a frog. However, the joke may be on Glenn Beck because a commenter pointed out my error within a few minutes. So, perhaps blogs and the internet are much better at disseminating truth than we might think.
Still, it was a good prank and a good reminder that- gasp- not everything on the internet is true. Well played, Mr. Beck.
If I knew for a certainty that a man was coming to my house with the conscious design of doing me good, I should run for my life.
~Henry David Thoreau
Howard County plans to propose legislation that would ban the use of tanning beds for those under 18(.pdf). Although science has not (yet) proven a cause and effect relationship between cancer and tanning beds, anyone with common sense knows that tanning- by the sun or by artificial light- can increase the risk of cancer. I recall from my tanning days that I had to sign something that said that tanning may be dangerous, and I would not sue the tanning salon if I got cancer. I was much more worried about getting leathery skin than cancer. The risks are a good argument for parents to closely monitor the tanning habits of their children, but not a good argument for a policy which bans all young adults from responsibly using tanning beds.
According to the statistics in the Howard County Press release (linked above), 1 million people use tanning beds everyday. Even so, only 18 in 100,000 people nationwide have Melanoma (from any cause, not just tanning beds). Therefore, while the risks of tanning may be real, they are also very low. Brittany Lietz, the former Miss Maryland who developed skin cancer, went tanning 4 times a week for 3 years. That is a VERY heavy user. Explore Howard cited another young woman who went tanning every other week for 3 years and remained cancer free. It is very naïve and foolish to force laws on everyone based on the few people who harm only themselves by abusing certain goods or services. But that’s what the government does best. Politicians are all members of the fear-mongering "Party of No”.
Fortunately, the miracle of Capitalism has given us spray tans and sunless tanning crèmes so that people who are concerned about the risks of tanning still have ways to appear tan. However, it’s nevertheless irritating when arrogant and foolish politicians regulate our choices as if we are all morons. I honestly feel bad that Ken Ulman’s brother had to fight cancer two times, but that does not make Ken Ulman the cancer police. If anything, it suggests that Mr. Ulman thinks about cancer with a lot more emotion than reason.
I would not be opposed to an informational campaign, but an outright ban on young adults from using tanning salons is just ridiculous.
The push for universal coverage is based on the appealing premise that everyone should have access to the best health care possible whenever they need it. That soft-hearted aspiration, however, runs into the hardheaded reality that state-of-the-art health care is increasingly expensive. At some point, someone in the system has to say there are some things we will not pay for. The big question is, who? The government? Insurance companies? Or consumers themselves? And should the answer necessarily be the same for everyone?
Inequality in economic resources is a natural but not altogether attractive feature of a free society. As health care becomes an ever larger share of the economy, we will have no choice but to struggle with the questions of how far we should allow such inequality to extend and what restrictions on our liberty we should endure in the name of fairness.
In the end of our day of philosophizing, however, we face a practical decision:
An excellent column by Cheye Calvo appears in the Post. You may recall that he is the Berwyn Heights mayor whose two Labrador Retrievers were shot and killed by police in a mistaken drug raid on his home. Please read the whole thing (it's not very long). Below are some highlights:
Yet, I remain captured by the broader implications of the incident. Namely, that my initial take was wrong: It was no accident but rather business as usual that brought the police to -- and through -- our front door.
In the words of Prince George's County Sheriff Michael Jackson, whose deputies carried out the assault, "the guys did what they were supposed to do" -- acknowledging, almost as an afterthought, that terrorizing innocent citizens in Prince George's is standard fare. The only difference this time seems to be that the victim was a clean-cut white mayor with community support, resources and a story to tell the media.
What confounds me is the unmitigated refusal of county leaders to challenge law enforcement and to demand better -- as if civil rights are somehow rendered secondary by the war on drugs.
Later is this bit of information, which may explain why the Internal Affairs investigation of the botched Elkridge raid is taking so long. Basically, the longer they drag it out the less chance there is that anyone on the police force gets in trouble:
Internal affairs division (IAD) investigations were required to take no longer than 90 days. More than a year after our ordeal, my family awaits the IAD report on what happened at our home. The statute of limitations for officer misconduct is 12 months, which means that any wrongdoers are off the hook.
The pasty white County Executive and the pasty white Health Officer will announce on Tuesday plans to ban those under 18 years of age from using tanning beds. I think this is pretty silly. If young adults and their parents are not capable of making an informed decision about using tanning beds responsibly, then our society is completely doomed. Furthermore, there are no public health externalities that I can see resulting from the use of tanning beds. It’s not like my risk for cancer will increase if a 16 year old girl goes tanning for a few weeks before prom. I'll also be curious to see if this ban applies to tanning beds that are maintained in a home for use by the homeowner and family or just to public tanning salons.
I have not been to a tanning salon in awhile, but I used to go regularly. In fact, I even had an unlimited tanning membership at a local tanning salon one summer (I think I was probably over 18, however). It was a nice relaxing way to spend 10-20 minutes and have a nice tan to show for it. It would be a shame to take that opportunity away from those under 18.
I finally had an opportunity to see the skate spot at Centennial Park North firsthand. I was struck by two things: 1. the skate spot is very small and 2. the skate spot is covered in graffiti.
Having the entire skate park covered in graffiti sends the signal that no one is in charge and that no one cares how the place looks. I'd like to see all the politicians who showed up for a photo op on opening day back for a second round of photos on the newly redecorated equipment.
Update: I found this Howard County based graffiti blog which has more pics of the skate park. It describes the graffiti at the skate park as the "...crazyist shit in Ellicott City." You can even ask the blogger to leave you a tag!
The Dean of Harvard Medical School on health care. Rightly, he does not seem to be a raving fan of even more government involvement.
First, there is our inefficient and inequitable system of tax-advantaged, employer-based health insurance. While the federal tax code promotes overspending by making the majority unaware of the true cost of their insurance and care, the code is grossly unfair to the self-employed, small businesses, workers who stick with a bad job because they need the coverage, and workers who lose their jobs after getting sick.
This employer-based system arose not by thoughtful design but as an unforeseen result of price controls during World War II and subsequent tax policy. How this developed and persisted despite its unfairness and maladaptive consequences is a powerful illustration of the law of unintended consequences and the fact that government can take six decades or more to fix its obvious mistakes.
....
Second, identify and eliminate the many barriers to entry and innovation in the health care and insurance marketplace. Eliminating what are often hidden barriers to competition will encourage entrepreneurs to offer lower-cost ways of financing and delivering health care, approaches that will deliver greater health care value for the dollars spent.
I am extremely confused by the below CNN clip about the Healthy Howard Access Plan:
First of all, the CNN reporter refers to HHAP as "insurance", which is not what HHAP is.
Healthy Howard Access Plan is a new program designed to connect Howard County residents to affordable health care services and help our community overcome barriers to healthy living. The Plan is not insurance, but offers basic medical and preventive care to eligible residents who would otherwise not be able to afford or obtain health insurance.
Yet, the CNN clip describes a HHAP member who received triple bypass surgery for only $102. Additionally, during the budget process it was noted by council members that a $500,000 private grant to HHAP remained unspent, but Beilenson argued that the money was needed for "unexpected medical expenses". Having reserves of that magnitude on hand and providing triple bypass surgeries for $102 sure sounds like insurance to me.
Ulman announced the plan in October 2007 and said at the time that it would begin offering care by July 1, 2008.
The delay stems from state insurance regulators' belief that Ulman's proposed Healthy Howard plan should be regulated as health insurance.
The Maryland Insurance Administration has yet to rule on whether the plan is insurance.
If it decides that it does constitute insurance, state law would require the nonprofit agency the county is using to administer the plan to have millions of dollars in reserve funds before offering the services.
The plan does not carry the same risk for cost overruns as health insurance plans, partly because the amount of services participants are eligible for is limited, Howard County Health Officer Peter Beilenson said.
However, rather than risk a court fight in which a loss would derail the plan, Ulman will seek state legislation to allow the nonprofit agency to offer the services without accruing the financial reserves, Beilenson said.
So far, Howard County taxpayers have put $1 million dollars into HHAP, HHAP has only enrolled somewhere around 300 people, and the plan has not published any audited statements or produced any other reports on its website. Add to this the murky area as to how HHAP is able to get away with not considering itself health insurance and therefore skirt the absurd government regulation that a private insurance company would have to endure.
Update: This .pdf document may contain some answers. Basically, HHAP lets its members see a doctor 6 or 7 times a year, but if they need expensive surgeries like triple bypass, HHAP transfers those members to MHIP and pays the $4,500 MHIP deductible for the surgery. The transferred members then pay the monthly fees for MHIP, which are a whole lot more expense than the HHAP monthly fees.
Healthy Howard isn’t exactly health insurance, but a network of services that includes up to six primary care visits per year at the not-for-profit Chase Brexton Health Services clinic in Columbia, Md., and pro bono services from a bank of 200 specialists in 17 fields. With permission from a state regulatory commission, Howard County General Hospital has agreed to provide free hospitalization to members, forgoing the usual procedure under Maryland’s allpayer system of pursuing collection from uninsured patients. Johns Hopkins Hospital and the Maryland Shock Trauma Center have stepped up too, agreeing to see patients who need care unavailable at Howard County General. The program transfers members requiring very costly treatment to the more inclusive Maryland Health Insurance Program (MHIP) by paying down the required $4,500 deductible. Then they are left to pay the somewhat higher MHIP premium.
So, when you hear about HHAP members who seem to have received expensive surgeries for free or negligible costs, that is because those HHAP members were transferred to MHIP, and MHIP picked up most of the tab.
Today at Centennial Park the Howard County SWAT team was displaying some of their weapons and equipment as part of the Police Pace 5K. Below is a pic of three firearms.
The weapon in the middle is a Heckler & Koch MP5 submachine gun, which is generally considered the best submachine gun in world. These guns can fire as much as 900 rounds per minute in full-auto mode. If it looks familiar, think back to Elian Gonzalez.
I briefly spoke with one of the tactical team members who confirmed that the assault rifle that was stolen from the unoccupied patrol car in Elkridge still has not been recovered after nine months. He said that they served several warrants looking for the rifle, but it wasn't there. Although the officer did not mention it, one of those failed raids resulted in the shooting of a family dog.
The tactical team member I spoke with was very polite and professional, but when I asked about the shooting of the dog during on of those raids, he said the problem was that the dog "attacked a few of the officers", and the officers had to defend themselves.
I suppose the dog could make that same self-defense argument, although with much more justification. After all, the tactical teams busted down the door of an apparently innocent person. The dog was responding to the threat the officers presented to the dog's owners. The officers were wholly unprepared to deal with the dog in any manner other than a spray of gunfire. Unfortunately, the dog does not have a police union and politicians to make its apologies. Nor do our tax dollars provide training to dogs on how to deal with police raids (at least not yet, but you never know with these politicians).
The Howard County Police Department continues to be silent about the details of the raid, even 9 months later. Other than Police Chief McMahon smiling for the reporters and telling us that the investigation is continuing (this was back in February), the police top brass have made no effort to let the public know what's going on.
For the gun buffs: I'm not sure what the rifle is on the left (looks like some kind of H&K version of an AR-15), and the shotgun on the right is a Remington 870 (express?) similar to one of my 870s. I think the thing on the end of barrel is for shooting locks off of doors.
Why may people die as a direct result of this new tariff on tires?
President Barack Obama on Friday slapped punitive tariffs on all car and light truck tires entering the United States from China in a decision that could anger the strategically important Asian powerhouse but placate union supporters important to his health care push at home.
Answer: as tires are made more expensive, people will delay the replacement of worn tires which will increase their risk of tire failure which may result in a higher number of accidents. I'm not trying to sound alarmist, but an unintended consequence of this simple tariff on tires may be slightly more highway deaths.
But hey, as long as it makes the labor unions happy, what's a few highway deaths?
I heard someone today question why many of the same people that were so upset about Obama's speech to school children send their children to public schools and don't seem to be at all concerned about other sources of potential indoctrination in those schools. You would think they would send their kids to private schools or perhaps home school their kids, so they have more control over the quality of education.
I distinctly remember my 4th grade Howard County public school teacher telling us that Noah's Ark was discovered by American satellites on a mountaintop in the Soviet Union, but the Soviet government was hiding it. I'm sure Obama knows the Ark is somewhere in Turkey!
Obama’s speech to school children (text of the speech is here) is actually pretty good. In fact, if kids are not already getting a similar message from their principals, teachers and parents, then our school system really isn’t doing a very good job.
My favorite part of the speech is as follows:
But at the end of the day, we can have the most dedicated teachers, the most supportive parents, and the best schools in the world and none of it will matter unless all of you fulfill your responsibilities. Unless you show up to those schools; pay attention to those teachers; listen to your parents, grandparents and other adults; and put in the hard work it takes to succeed.
And that's what I want to focus on today: the responsibility each of you has for your education. I want to start with the responsibility you have to yourself.
Personal responsibility is a wonderful thing that will not only make schools stronger, but also our nation stronger. Unfortunately, government at every level is more than happy to replace our personal responsibility with regulation and coercion. The FDA gives bureaucrats more power that we the people have over the medications we are allowed to use to fight diseases, the war on drugs wastes our tax dollars and creates a dangerous black market for drugs in the streets, most state governments even deny homosexuals the right to marry who they choose. How does any of this let people take responsibility for themselves? The government has even bailed out Wall Street and General Motors. I guess those guys are too important to take responsibility for their actions.
I will be impressed at Obama’s oratory skills if he can talk about personal responsibility with a straight face. He might expect school children to be take some responsibility for achieving their goals, but it doesn’t seem like he and other bureaucrats have the same expectations for the rest of society.
I wanted to expand my knowledge of our health care system, and I came across two books that I was interested in reading. Neither one of them is at the Howard County Library.
Eventually, a compromised was reached in that the Soil District was to charge fees for their services, which makes perfect sense. However, things must have fallen apart because the Soil District ended up laying off two employees anyway, although they were hired back part-time after a mysterious source of funds were located.
The Howard Soil Conservation District, an independent agency mostly supported by county funds, reviews sediment and erosion control plans for proposed developments. The district ran out of money to pay two employees who review the plans last Friday, the agency’s manager, Bob Ensor, said.
The two employees were laid off on Friday and the agency still had no employees to do the work as of Monday, Ensor said. Ensor later found funding to rehire the employees to work two days a week until the County Council acts on a bill that would fund the positions through a fee schedule imposed on developers. The council is expected to vote on that bill Sept. 8.
In a letter Tuesday to County Auditor Haskell Arnold, Ulman said the actions of the Howard Soil Conservation District “raise serious concerns about their ability to manage their public responsibilities and act in the public interest.”
The money to re-hire the employees came from private donations from Conservation District supervisors. This all sounds pretty weird, don't you think?
The dove hunt that I blogged about yesterday reminded me of this classic movie clip from Wedding Crashers. Fair warning for those with delicate ears: the clip contains the F-bomb. Yay for the awesomeness of YouTube!:
It’s hard to fault someone who seeks to help disabled veterans. Explore Howard reports that two people have organized an event at a West Friendship farm with the goal of doing just that. It would take a pretty ill-conceived event to tarnish a goal as worthy as honoring disabled veterans.
So what is the plan to honor these vets? Well, the event hosts planted seven acres of sunflowers and will invite people to shoot some doves with shotguns, natch. I know what you may be thinking: doves are birds of peace, why don’t they shoot bald eagles instead? Well, because shooting our national bird to honor disabled veterans would be totally crass symbolism, of course!
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